UKRAINE AND RUSSIA WAR WILL END AT WHICH COST?
The Russo-Ukrainian War is an ongoing international conflict that began in February 2014, between Russia and Ukrainian separatists it supports, and Ukraine. The conflict started after Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity, when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine and supported pro-Russian separatists fighting the Ukrainian military in the Donbas region. This conflict has also involved naval incidents, cyberwarfare, and political tensions. The unrest in eastern and southern Ukraine started after the Euromaidan protests and the ousting of Ukraine’s pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych. In 2014, unmarked Russian troops moved into Ukraine’s Crimea and took control of key sites and infrastructure, and Russia later annexed Crimea after a disputed referendum. The Donbas war began in April 2014, when pro-Russian separatists proclaimed independence and took over government buildings in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. The separatists received significant but covert support from Russia, and the conflict continued despite the signing of the Minsk II agreements in February 2015. The Donbas war has been characterized by intermittent ceasefires but no lasting peace or major territorial changes.
Starting in 2021, Russia established a significant military presence near the Ukraine border, including in Belarus. Despite denying any plans to attack Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin opposed Ukraine’s potential membership in NATO and made territorial claims against Ukraine. In February 2022, Russia recognized the DPR and LPR as independent states and launched a military operation in Ukraine, which sparked international condemnation and led to sanctions against Russia. After failing to capture Kyiv in April 2022, Ukrainian forces initiated counter-offensives that resulted in the recapture of some territories. In late September, Russia declared the annexation of four partially-occupied regions in southern and eastern Ukraine, but this move was not recognized by the international community. The war caused a refugee crisis and numerous casualties.
- History
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a complex and multi-layered history that dates back many years. Some of the key events that have contributed to the current conflict include:
Soviet Era: During the Soviet era, Ukraine was a republic within the USSR, while Russia was the dominant republic. This power dynamic laid the foundation for the current conflict, as Ukraine has long been wary of Russia’s influence and attempts to control its politics and economy.
1991: With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine became an independent country. Russia initially supported Ukraine’s independence, but tensions soon arose over issues such as territorial disputes, energy supplies, and trade relations.
2004: In 2004, Ukraine held a presidential election that was marred by allegations of fraud. The opposition candidate, Viktor Yushchenko, led protests against the government, which became known as the Orange Revolution. Yushchenko eventually won a re-run of the election, but his presidency was marked by political infighting and economic difficulties.
2014: In 2014, Ukraine’s pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, was ousted in a popular uprising known as the Euromaidan. Russia saw this as a threat to its interests in Ukraine, and annexed Crimea from Ukraine. This move was widely condemned by the international community, and led to sanctions against Russia.
2014-Present: Since 2014, a conflict has been ongoing in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian government forces and Russian-backed separatists. Several people died during this conflict or lost their living space. There have been several attempts to negotiate a peaceful resolution, but so far a lasting agreement has not been reached.
Overall, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is rooted in a complex history that involves political, economic, and territorial disputes. The ongoing conflict has had devastating consequences for both countries and has yet to be fully resolved.
- Russian Invasion
The invasion resulted in the capture of territories, but this action was not recognized by other countries and was widely condemned. In response to Putin’s announcement of conscription, many Russians tried to leave the country, causing a shortage of one-way tickets. However, Ukraine was able to recapture several regions during their counteroffensive, including Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson.
The International community condemned the invasion as an act of aggression, with the UN General Assembly calling for the withdrawal of Russian forces, the International Court of Justice ordering a suspension of military operations, and the Council of Europe expelling Russia. Sanctions were imposed on Russia, affecting their economy and the world, and many countries provided aid to Ukraine. To enforce conscription, Putin signed a law imposing a 10-year prison sentence for those who resist, leading to a call for asylum for Russians fleeing conscription. According to The New York Times, the number of Russian troops killed and wounded in Ukraine has reached almost 200,000 as of February 2023.
- The Humanitarian Crisis
During the conflict in Ukraine between 2014 and 2021, there were over 3,000 civilian casualties and restrictions on movement for those in the conflict zone. Both sides engaged in arbitrary detention, with the practice decreasing in government-held areas after 2016 but continuing in separatist-held areas. Investigations into abuses by both sides had little progress.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian authorities and armed forces have committed numerous war crimes, including intentional attacks on civilians, massacres, torture, rape, and indiscriminate attacks in densely populated areas. After the Russian withdrawal from areas north of Kyiv, overwhelming evidence of war crimes was discovered, including a massacre of civilians in Bucha where Russian troops engaged in torture, mutilation, rape, looting, and deliberate killings of civilians. The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine has documented the murder of at least 73 civilians in Bucha, with over 1,200 bodies of civilians found in the Kyiv region after Russian forces withdrew. Reports also indicate forced deportations of civilians, sexual violence, and deliberate killing of Ukrainian civilians by Russian forces.
Ukrainian forces have also been accused of committing war crimes, including mistreatment of detainees, but to a lesser extent than Russian forces.
