Can Kamala Harris Defeat Donald Trump: Sources close to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign say that the independent candidate could drop out of the race as soon as tomorrow. This might mean Trump will back him up.
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It’s not clear how his leaving will affect the polls of Trump vs. Harris, but this study from the Independent shows that RFK Jr. has more support in places like New Mexico, which could help him get more young people to vote.
A new study by YouGov/The Economist, which was partly done during the DNC (August 17–20), gives Harris a 3-point lead over Trump. This is one more point than the week before.
The study shows that Harris has gained two points among women voters, with 51% voting for her. Among young voters, she has gained six points, with 59 percent voting for her.
There are 27% of young people who say they will vote for Trump in November.
Harris now has 47% of the vote among people who make between $50,000 and $100,000 a year, while Trump only has 43%.
The same study from last week found that Trump had a 5-point edge among middle-class voters.
Independents
A Morning Consult poll of 11,501 registered voters found that more and more independent voters are backing Harris.
The vote of independents is very important for both Harris and Trump to win the race. Most of them will likely vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., but one in ten independents will vote for a third-party candidate instead.
People continue to place a greater trust in the Republican Party to address significant issues such as inflation, the economy, crime, and employment, despite the fact that it is not even close.
When it comes to health care, the Democrats are more popular than the Republicans; however, there are some Republicans who are uncertain about certain critical issues. Four out of five people would rather have Democrats handle issues like LGBTQ+ rights and climate change.
Demographics
As of August 16, a CBS/YouGov poll gave Harris a 3-point lead over Trump. The poll also showed a big difference between the sexes, with more men voting for Trump and more women voting for Harris.
Trump’s main fans are still white men between the ages of 45 and 64 and voters who have not gone to college. But when it comes to the last group, Trump seems to have less power over Harris than he did over Biden.
Harris is most likely to receive the votes of young people, women, and Black individuals. He maintains a +65 point advantage over these categories.
Harris and Biden were both ahead among white college-educated voters in previous polls. Nevertheless, a recent CBS poll indicates that Harris is only 5 points ahead of Trump in this category, a significant decrease from the 20+ point lead she had in previous polls.
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Fighting in the field of war
People running for office are still at war with each other in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which are the seven key states.
The Cook Political Report says that Harris is ahead in six of the seven states they looked at. Trump is still ahead in Nevada.
The poll shows that Harris has the biggest lead in Arizona, which Biden barely won by 0.4% in 2020.
This is a big change from the same polls in May, when Trump and Biden were running against each other. Trump led in six states and Wisconsin was tied.
Nevertheless, polls conducted in states that are divided remain inconsistent. For instance, a YouGov/CBS poll conducted on the same date (August 2) indicated that neither candidate held a significant lead in any of the battlegrounds.
In general, Harris has garnered support from states where her predecessor was trailing, and she is on course to surpass Trump in a number of them, according to significant polls..
Voters Preferences
A poll from Emerson College shows that Kamala Harris is the only candidate who has a positive view, with a 2% rating.
Trump and his running mate Vance have a net -10 negative rating, which is worse than this. The number of people who like or dislike VP nominee Walz is equal, with 39% saying they like him and 39% saying they don’t.
A week after Walz was chosen, 22% of voters said they had never heard of him. At the same time, voters showed a general dislike of Joe Biden’s job success.
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